Economics
Will the US sovereign credit rating be downgraded to Aa2 (or equivalent) by Moody's before the end of 2027?
An economics prediction on the fiscal health of the US government following the 2025 downgrade to Aa1.
Yes 42%Maybe 8%No 50%
84 total votes
Analysis
US Credit Rating: Another Downgrade by 2027?
Moody's downgraded the US to Aa1 in May 2025, citing fiscal deterioration and political polarization. This prediction asks if a further downgrade to Aa2 will occur before the end of 2027.
Stabilization or Spiral?
The vote is split. A second downgrade in such a short window would indicate a catastrophic loss of confidence in US fiscal management. While deficits remain high, the 'No' vote leads slightly on the assumption that the US economy's underlying strength and the dollar's reserve status will prevent a rapid spiral of downgrades, provided there are no debt ceiling defaults or massive new un-funded spending programs.