Will the US Nonfinancial Corporate Debt-to-GDP ratio exceed its 2009 peak (77.8%) in any year (2027–2030)?

Corporate Leverage Watch

US Nonfinancial Corporate Debt-to-GDP spiked to roughly 87% during the initial COVID-19 economic shock in 2020 before retreating. The 2009 peak was 77.8%. While global debt-to-GDP is projected to rise moderately through 2030 (S&P Global, simulated late 2025 context), the current high-interest rate environment acts as a constraint, making corporate borrowing more expensive and slowing leverage growth. The 'No' majority reflects the belief that corporations will continue to deleverage modestly from the 2020 peak, or at least stabilize below the 2009 peak as nominal GDP grows and financial discipline returns in response to higher financing costs.