Will the US Federal Reserve initiate a rate-cutting cycle (at least two consecutive cuts) before the end of Q2 2025?

The Pivot: From Fighting Inflation to Supporting Growth

The Federal Reserve's aggressive rate-hiking cycle was a direct response to multi-decade high inflation. As inflation metrics show sustained signs of cooling and the labor market normalizes, the debate has shifted from 'how high' to 'when' the Fed will begin cutting rates to prevent over-tightening and support the economy.

Data-Dependent, but Leaning Dovish

The majority 'Yes' vote anticipates that by mid-2025, the cumulative data will give the Fed the confidence it needs to initiate a cautious easing cycle. The primary risk to the 'No' vote is a re-acceleration of inflation, which would force the Fed to maintain a 'higher-for-longer' stance beyond the Q2 2025 deadline. The close timeline makes this a high-stakes forecast for markets.