General
Will the US Federal Debt-to-GDP ratio exceed 140% by the end of the 2028 fiscal year?
An economics prediction on the accelerating pace of US national debt growth relative to its economic output.
Yes 54%Maybe 8%No 38%
106 total votes
Analysis
US Debt/GDP: Over 140% by 2028?
The US Federal Debt-to-GDP ratio currently sits around $125\%$. This prediction asks if it will exceed $140\%$ by the end of the 2028 fiscal year.
Fiscal Trajectory
The 'Yes' vote leads. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecasts massive long-term deficits due to mandatory spending (Social Security, Medicare) and higher interest payments on existing debt. Hitting $140\%$ requires the ratio to grow roughly $5\%$ per year, which is highly probable unless Congress enacts massive, politically difficult spending cuts or tax increases—neither of which is expected in the lead-up to the 2028 presidential election.