General
Will the US corporate high-yield bond default rate exceed 6.0% for the full calendar year 2027?
An economics prediction on a significant rise in corporate bankruptcies driven by higher debt servicing costs.
72 total votes
Analysis
Default Rate: Crossing the 6% Threshold?
In late 2025, the US high-yield default rate remains historically low, hovering below the long-term average (simulated $3\%\!-\!4\%$) despite elevated interest rates. This prediction asks if the rate will surge past $6.0\%$ in 2027.
Maturity Wall and Interest Cost
The slight 'No' majority suggests that a soft landing or moderate economic recovery will keep defaults contained. However, the 'Yes' camp points to the approaching 'maturity wall'—a huge volume of low-interest debt issued in 2020/2021 that needs refinancing at significantly higher rates in 2026/2027. If the Fed does not cut rates as quickly as optimists hope, 2027 could see a sharp wave of distressed restructurings, pushing the rate over $6\%$.