Will the US core PCE inflation rate average below 2.5% across the 2027–2030 calendar years?

The Inflation Anchor

The US Federal Reserve targets an average inflation rate of $2%$ for the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. Following the surge in inflation post-2021, the Fed has utilized aggressive interest rate hikes (simulated late 2025 context). Most long-term forecasts from the Fed, IMF, and OECD suggest that inflation will settle near or slightly above the $2%$ target, but generally below $2.5%$ in the latter half of the decade. The slight 'Yes' majority reflects confidence in the Fed's commitment to price stability and the structural constraints (aging population, productivity gains from AI) that will prevent a return to the high-inflation environment of the early 2020s.