General
Will the US Congress pass a federal, revenue-neutral carbon tax (or similar carbon pricing mechanism) that is signed into law before the end of 2028?
A politics/economics prediction on major climate policy action in the deeply divided US legislature.
Yes 18%Maybe 12%No 71%
17 total votes
Analysis
The Carbon Tax Hurdle
While many economists support a carbon tax as the most efficient climate solution, political inertia in the US remains immense. The leading 'No' vote reflects the reality that passing any major new tax, even if revenue-neutral (rebated to citizens), requires a level of bipartisan consensus that is extremely rare in the current political climate. It would need to survive the 2026 midterms and the 2028 presidential election cycle, making success highly improbable.