Will the US commercial real estate (CRE) office vacancy rate exceed 20.0% nationally in any quarter before the end of 2030?

The Empty Tower

The US office sector has faced unprecedented challenges due to hybrid and remote work. The national office vacancy rate was hovering near $19.0\%$ in the mid-2020s, with some major cities exceeding $25\%$ (simulated late 2025 context). While some market stabilization is expected (Source 3.1), this is largely due to older buildings being demolished or repurposed, not a return of workers. The $70\%$ 'Yes' consensus is that the permanent reduction in demand for square footage, combined with a potential future economic downturn (which always spikes vacancies), will be enough to push the national average **well over the $20.0\%$ threshold in any quarter before 2030**, causing significant stress to regional banks holding CRE debt.