Will the United States enact a federal Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) before the end of 2028?

US Carbon Border Tax: Enacted by 2028?

The EU has already implemented a CBAM. This prediction asks if the US will follow suit with its own federal border carbon tax/tariff before the end of 2028.

Bipartisan Protectionism

The vote is evenly split because the policy appeals to different factions for different reasons: Democrats view it as climate action, while Republicans (via proposals like the 'Foreign Pollution Fee Act') view it as a way to protect US manufacturing from China. The hurdle is the lack of a domestic US carbon price to base the adjustment on. Passing such complex trade legislation requires a rare alignment of protectionist interests in Congress, making it a toss-up depending on the 2026 and 2028 election outcomes.