General
Will the United Kingdom formally withdraw from the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) before the end of 2027?
A high-stakes political prediction on the UK leaving the international human rights framework, driven by issues like irregular migration.
60 total votes
Analysis
UK and the ECHR: Withdrawal by 2027?
Withdrawal from the ECHR has become a major political rallying cry within the Conservative Party, particularly as a mechanism to override court rulings perceived to obstruct policies such as migrant deportations. The process of leaving is complex, requiring a new government to pass necessary domestic legislation and then formally 'denounce' the Convention (a six-month notice period).
Legal and Political Hurdles
The slight 'No' majority reflects the immense political and constitutional lift required. Withdrawal would provoke a major crisis with the judiciary, the House of Lords, and the devolution governments (especially Northern Ireland). The practical difficulties of passing the necessary legislation and navigating international falloutāeven if a party wins on this mandateāmean the process is likely to be significantly delayed or abandoned entirely.