General
Will the UN Security Council add at least one permanent member (P5 reform) or abolish the veto power of the P5 members before the end of 2030?
A geopolitics prediction on the successful, radical reform of the UN Security Council.
43 total votes
Analysis
The Permanent Obstacle to UN Reform
Reform of the UN Security Council (UNSC), including the expansion of permanent membership (G4 nations: Germany, Japan, India, Brazil) or the abolition of the veto power, is highly desired by most UN members. However, any such change requires an amendment to the UN Charter, which must be ratified by two-thirds of the General Assembly and all five permanent members (P5). The P5 (US, UK, France, China, Russia) have a vested interest in maintaining their veto power and influence, making it almost certain that they would block any radical reform that weakens their position. The near-unanimous 'No' vote reflects this political reality, rendering major reform by 2030 virtually impossible.