Politics
Will the UK government authorize a second Scottish independence referendum before the end of 2028?
A high-stakes political prediction regarding the authorization of a second independence vote, which legally requires the consent of the UK Parliament (Westminster).
90 total votes
Analysis
A Second Scottish Referendum: The Political Barrier
The UK Supreme Court has definitively ruled that the Scottish Parliament lacks the legal power to hold an independence referendum without the express consent of Westminster. Currently, the UK government is firmly opposed to authorizing a 'Section 30 Order' that would grant the power. The opposition Labour Party has also stated it would not agree to a referendum if elected.
The Need for Political Leverage
The strong 'No' vote reflects the current political deadlock. For a 'Yes' to occur, either the public demand in Scotland must rise to an overwhelming level (well above 60%) that Westminster can no longer ignore, or a future UK General Election must produce a hung Parliament where a Scottish nationalist party holds the balance of power and makes the referendum authorization its sole condition for propping up a government.