General
Will the spot price of Brent Crude Oil (per barrel) close below $40 USD on any full calendar month before end of 2027?
An economics prediction on a significant collapse in crude oil prices driven by market dynamics and a faster-than-expected energy transition.
Yes 33%Maybe 10%No 57%
90 total votes
Analysis
Oil's Low Floor
While the long-term trend suggests peak oil demand is approaching due to electrification and efficiency gains, the current market is highly sensitive to geopolitical instability and production cuts by OPEC+. A price drop below $40 USD per barrel for a full month suggests either a massive global recession or a complete breakdown of OPEC's ability to stabilize prices. The 'No' vote leads because the geopolitical floor is expected to remain firm enough to prevent such a collapse, despite increasing supply pressure from non-OPEC countries and slowing demand growth.