General
Will the price of crude oil (WTI) exceed $120 per barrel in any single month (2026–2030)?
An energy prediction on the volatility and potential price spikes in the global crude oil market.
51 total votes
Analysis
The Crude Volatility Trap
Crude oil prices are subject to extreme volatility driven by OPEC+ decisions, geopolitical conflicts (especially in the Middle East), and global demand shocks. While consensus long-term forecasts generally place oil prices in the $70-$90 range, the risk of a major **supply disruption** remains high (IEA, simulated late 2025 context). The strong 'Yes' majority reflects the belief that the persistent geopolitical instability, combined with constrained investment in new supply, makes it highly likely that a single, sharp event will cause the price of WTI crude to spike above the **$120 per barrel** threshold for at least one month between 2026 and 2030.