Will the President of the United States veto a Congressional budget bill (appropriations) in 2026, leading to a temporary federal government shutdown?

Federal Shutdown 2026: Veto of Budget Bill Leads to Lapse

Government shutdowns often occur when the President and Congress (particularly the House) cannot agree on appropriations bills before the fiscal year deadline (October 1). This prediction states that the President will veto a Congressional budget bill in the calendar year 2026, leading to a temporary federal government shutdown.

Divided Government Dynamics

The majority 'Yes' vote reflects the current political climate:

• **Partisan Gaps:** The ideological gap between the two major parties remains wide, making compromise on spending levels and policy riders (e.g., border security, social funding) extremely difficult.
• **Midterm Positioning:** Both parties will likely use the budget fight in 2026 (the midterm election year) to grandstand and draw sharp contrasts for voters.
• **House Volatility:** If the House majority is narrow, legislative leadership may struggle to pass a clean funding bill, even within their own caucus.

Given the high-stakes political incentives, a temporary shutdown over a veto is considered a high-probability outcome for 2026.