Will the percentage of global primary energy derived from non-fossil fuel sources exceed 50% in any year before the end of 2030?

The Scale of the Challenge

While the growth of renewables (wind and solar) is accelerating rapidly (Source 5.2), 'primary energy' includes non-electricity uses like transport fuel, industrial heat, and heating/cooling. Fossil fuels currently account for nearly $80\%$ of global primary energy supply (IEA, simulated late 2025 context). The IEA anticipates a peak in oil and coal demand around 2030 (Source 5.1). However, displacing nearly $30\%$ of the world's total energy supply in just five years is an astronomical challenge. The strong $65\%$ 'No' vote reflects the fact that despite the boom in clean energy, the scale and inertia of the global energy system make it highly improbable that the **non-fossil fuel share will exceed $50\%** before the end of 2030**.