Will the People's Republic of China initiate a declared military blockade of Taiwan (short of a full invasion) before the end of 2028?

Taiwan Crisis: Blockade by 2028?

Tensions in the Taiwan Strait are high. This prediction asks if China will initiate a declared military blockade (or 'quarantine') of Taiwan before the end of 2028.

The Gray Zone Strategy

The 'No' vote holds a plurality because a full blockade is an act of war that would likely trigger US intervention and global economic collapse. Analysts generally believe China prefers 'gray zone' coercion—military exercises, cyberattacks, and economic sanctions—that falls short of a kinetic blockade. While the risk increases toward the end of the decade (the 'Davidson Window'), a formal blockade by 2028 is viewed as a high-risk escalation that Beijing will try to avoid unless provoked by a specific political trigger (e.g., a declaration of independence).