General
Will the NASA-ESA Mars Sample Return (MSR) mission be officially cancelled or indefinitely postponed (no launch before 2030) by the end of 2026?
Forecasting the fate of NASA's flagship planetary science mission amidst budget crises and design challenges.
17 total votes
Analysis
Mars Sample Return: Cancellation or Delay by 2026?
The Mars Sample Return (MSR) mission, designed to retrieve samples collected by the Perseverance rover, is in jeopardy. This prediction asks if the mission will be officially cancelled or indefinitely postponed (meaning no scheduled launch prior to 2030) by the end of 2026.
The 11 Billion Dollar Problem
The 'Yes' vote leads due to severe fiscal realities. Independent reviews in 2024 and 2025 estimated the cost ballooning to between $8 billion and $11 billion, a figure NASA administrator Bill Nelson deemed 'unacceptable' given the broader planetary science budget. NASA has actively solicited cheaper, faster architecture proposals from industry (e.g., SpaceX, Lockheed Martin). Unless a radical, low-cost solution is validated quickly, the program faces the chopping block or a multi-decade delay to save funds for other priorities like Artemis.