General
Will the majority of new US residential construction starts in the 2027 calendar year be for multi-family units (apartments/condos) rather than single-family homes?
A finance and housing prediction on a major structural shift in the US housing market toward higher-density urban development.
83 total votes
Analysis
US Housing: Multi-Family Dominates New Construction in 2027
This prediction requires that the total volume of **new US residential construction starts** (a measure of groundbreaking) for multi-family buildings (5+ units) exceeds that of single-family homes (1 unit) in 2027.
Affordability and Demographic Pressures
The high **'Yes'** vote is a consensus among urban planners and housing analysts. Multi-family starts briefly exceeded single-family starts in 2022/2023, reflecting a demand shock for high-density living driven by high interest rates, high single-family home prices, and generational shifts (Millennials/Gen Z preferring urban rentals). Despite single-family starting to recover, the long-term trend of **housing affordability crisis** and the increased rate of land-use reform (allowing for more density) favors multi-family construction to dominate new starts by 2027.