General
Will the ITER fusion reactor achieve its planned 'First Plasma' (hydrogen-only) by the end of 2034?
A technology prediction on the likelihood of the world's largest fusion experiment meeting its revised deadline for initial operation.
Yes 55%Maybe 7%No 38%
107 total votes
Analysis
ITER: Fusion's Long Road
The ITER project has faced numerous logistical, financial, and technical challenges, leading to its 'First Plasma' date being officially pushed back to 2034 (simulated late 2025 context). The even split reflects the monumental difficulty of the project versus the recent, more realistic schedule reset. The 'Yes' camp believes the new timeline has sufficient buffer, while the 'No' camp anticipates further political or technical setbacks for the highly complex, multi-national endeavor.