Will the global number of births fall below 120 million in any single year (2027–2030)?

The Demographic Slowdown

Global total fertility rates have been falling faster than UN projections, driven by rapid declines in high-fertility regions, particularly in parts of Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, as well as continued 'lowest-low' fertility in East Asia (simulated late 2025 context). While world population is still growing, the number of new births is stabilizing and starting to decline. The current annual birth count is estimated to be around 130 million. The slight 'Yes' majority suggests the accelerated fertility decline, if it continues its current trend, will be steep enough to push the annual count below 120 million in the latter half of the 2027–2030 period, signaling a faster demographic transition than previously expected.