Will the global life expectancy at birth fall in any single year (2027–2030) compared to the prior year?

The Risk of Regression

Global life expectancy at birth is projected to continue its general upward trend, reaching approximately 73.49 years in 2025 (Macrotrends/WHO, simulated late 2025 context). A fall, or regression, in a single year would require a major negative global shock: a new, highly lethal pandemic (exceeding COVID-19's impact), a major world conflict, or a series of devastating, high-mortality climate events (heatwaves, famines). The slight 'No' majority reflects the resilience of global public health systems post-COVID. While the risk of a major shock is non-zero, the odds favor the continuation of slow, grinding progress in sanitation and healthcare, preventing a single-year regression before 2030.