Will the global installed capacity of solar power exceed that of coal power for the first time before the end of 2028?

Solar Surpasses Coal: A Historic Crossover in Global Energy Capacity by 2028

The energy transition is one of the most critical technological and industrial shifts of our time. This prediction focuses on a momentous crossover: the global installed capacity of solar photovoltaic (PV) power exceeding that of coal power for the very first time before the end of 2028. This is a measure of total generating potential, not total energy production, which is affected by capacity factor.

The Momentum of Renewables

The global energy landscape is rapidly changing. Solar PV has seen continuous, dramatic cost reductions, making it the cheapest source of new electricity generation in many regions. Massive investment, particularly from countries like China, India, the US, and the EU, is driving installation records year after year. Conversely, many economies are beginning to decommission older, dirtier coal plants, especially in developed nations.

Forecasting by organizations like the International Energy Agency (IEA) has repeatedly underestimated the speed of solar adoption. With solar technology costs continuing to fall and global climate policies tightening, the cumulative installed capacity is on a trajectory to surpass coal's capacity by 2028. This crossover would be a major symbolic and material victory for the global shift to clean energy.