General
Will the global average life expectancy at birth reach 75 years in any single year before the end of 2030?
A health prediction on the rate of progress in global health standards and mortality reduction in developing nations.
101 total votes
Analysis
The Global Health Convergence
Global life expectancy at birth was approximately 71 years in 2021 (Source 2.2). While progress has slowed in some developed nations, the overall global average is heavily lifted by massive gains in the developing world, driven by better sanitation, vaccines, and reduced child mortality (Source 2.2). To reach the **75-year milestone before the end of 2030** requires an average gain of roughly one year every two years. The strong $70\%$ 'Yes' consensus is that the rapid deployment of new medical technologies (like the malaria vaccine mentioned previously) and continued economic growth in large, populous low-expectancy regions (like South Asia and Africa) will keep the convergence strong enough to hit this target **before 2030**.