Will the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) formally enter a state-level coalition government (as Minister-President or Deputy) before the end of 2027?

AfD Coalition: A State Government by 2027?

Despite strong electoral results in 2024/2025 (simulated), the AfD remains politically isolated due to the 'cordon sanitaire' maintained by the mainstream German parties (CDU, SPD, Greens, FDP). This prediction asks if this firewall will break, allowing the AfD to enter a formal state coalition by the end of 2027.

The Firewall Holds

The leading 'No' vote reflects the high political cost. While the AfD is necessary to form majorities in several eastern states, the CDU/CSU leadership has repeatedly rejected any cooperation. A break in the cordon sanitaire would likely shatter the federal CDU/CSU alliance. While pressure will mount in 2026/2027 state elections, the mainstream parties are more likely to tolerate minority governments or unprecedented grand coalitions than empower the AfD.