Will the Eurozone Core CPI (excluding energy and food) fall and remain below 1.5% for two consecutive quarters before the end of 2027?

Eurozone Core CPI: Two Quarters Below 1.5% by 2027

This prediction targets a sustained period of very low inflation, specifically two consecutive quarters where the Eurozone Core CPI (Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices excluding energy and food) is below $1.5\%$. The ECB targets $2\%$ inflation. Consensus forecasts from the ECB itself project core inflation at $1.8\%$ in 2027 (Source: ECB Economic Bulletin, Sep 2025).

The Stickiness of Services Inflation

The majority **'No'** vote is supported by the ECB's current projections, which anticipate core inflation remaining near the $2\%$ target through 2027. This is primarily due to the **stickiness of services inflation**, driven by strong wage growth across the Eurozone labour market, and structural factors like the green transition and defense spending (Source: Swiss Re, Morgan Stanley). While economic slowdowns can push headline inflation down, core inflation is proving resilient, making the sub-$1.5\%$ threshold unlikely without a deep, unexpected recession.