Will the Democratic Party of Japan (LDP) lose its simple majority in the Lower House in the next Japanese General Election (held before 2026)?

Japan Politics: LDP Loses Simple Majority?

The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has ruled Japan almost continuously since 1955. Following recent funding scandals and declining approval ratings, this prediction asks if the LDP will lose its **simple majority** (sole control) in the Lower House in the next election.

The Coalition Era

The **'Yes'** majority reflects the current weakness of the LDP. In the 2024 election, the LDP/Komeito coalition already lost its supermajority. A further slide is likely if economic dissatisfaction persists. Losing a simple majority would force the LDP to rely entirely on its coalition partner (Komeito) or seek new partners (like the DPP) to pass legislation, signaling a significant weakening of their traditional iron grip on Japanese politics.