Economics
Will the Bank of Japan successfully raise interest rates above 1% and sustain them there for at least two consecutive quarters before the end of 2026?
An economics prediction on Japanese monetary policy normalization, testing whether the world's last negative interest rate regime can achieve sustained policy tightening.
42 total votes
Analysis
Japan's Great Monetary Experiment: The End of ZIRP
The Bank of Japan has begun the long process of normalizing monetary policy after decades of zero interest rates and quantitative easing. However, sustaining higher rates requires overcoming deep structural economic challenges.
The Demographic Anchor
The majority 'Yes' vote is based on sustained inflation finally taking root in Japan after years of deflationary pressure. With wage growth showing signs of life and corporate pricing power improving, the conditions for policy normalization are improving. However, the 'No' vote cautions that Japan's aging population and massive public debt create strong disinflationary pressures that could force the BOJ to reverse course before reaching 1% sustained rates.