Will the average number of qubits in a commercially available, high-coherence quantum processor exceed 2,000 before 2028?

Quantum Scaling: 2,000+ Qubits in Commercial Processor by 2028

The complexity and power of a quantum computer are often measured by its qubit count, though 'high-coherence' (low error rate) is also critical. This prediction states that the average number of qubits in a commercially available, high-coherence quantum processor (e.g., from IBM, Google, or Quantinuum) will exceed 2,000 before the end of 2028.

The Exponential Roadmap

The high 'Yes' vote reflects the aggressive, well-publicized roadmaps of the major players, particularly IBM and Quantinuum, which are aiming for thousands of qubits in the near future. This is enabled by:

• **Error Correction:** Advances in quantum error correction architectures that allow processors to manage larger numbers of physical qubits.
• **Manufacturing Scale:** Improved cleanroom processes for fabricating complex superconducting and trapped-ion chips.

Exceeding 2,000 qubits would unlock the ability to tackle previously intractable computational problems, solidifying the commercial viability of quantum hardware.