General
Will the average global temperature rise exceed 1.6°C above pre-industrial levels for the full calendar year 2026?
A climate science prediction on the progression of global warming following the record-breaking heat of the mid-2020s.
Yes 56%Maybe 13%No 31%
86 total votes
Analysis
Climate: Breaching 1.6°C in 2026?
The 1.5°C threshold has already been breached on a 12-month rolling basis during the 2023/2024 El Niño. This prediction asks if the full calendar year 2026 will record an average anomaly above 1.6°C.
The New Normal?
The majority 'Yes' vote assumes that the baseline warming, driven by continued record greenhouse gas emissions, is accelerating. Even without a strong El Niño, the 'thermal inertia' of the oceans and reduced aerosol cooling (from shipping regulations) are keeping temperatures high. Many climate models suggest that 2026 or 2027 could set new records, making a 1.6°C year a probable near-term event.