General
Will the average age of a S&P 500 company (by weighted market cap) fall below 35 years by the end of 2028?
A finance prediction on whether rapid disruption by technology and new economy companies will reduce the average age of the index.
18 total votes
Analysis
Youth vs. Legacy on the S&P 500
The age of an S&P 500 company is measured from its founding date, weighted by its market capitalization. This average has been rising, reaching near $40$ years in 2023 (Brookings/S&P Global, simulated late 2025 context), driven by the massive market caps of old-line technology companies (like Microsoft and Apple). For the average to fall below $35$ years by 2028, newer, younger companies (often in AI, biotech, or FinTech) must grow fast enough to displace legacy companies *and* command a sufficiently large market cap. The split vote reflects the balance: the pace of technological disruption is rapid ('Yes'), but the dominance of the old-guard tech giants is immense ('No').