Will the average 30-year fixed US mortgage rate fall below 5.0% for any full month before the end of 2027?

Mortgage Rates: Below 5% by 2027?

Mortgage rates soared past 7% in the mid-2020s. This prediction asks if the national average 30-year fixed rate will drop below 5.0% for a full month before the end of 2027.

The Higher-for-Longer Reality

The 'No' vote leads slightly. While the Federal Reserve is cutting rates, the 'spread' between the 10-year Treasury and mortgage rates remains historically high due to volatility and prepayment risk. Most economists predict rates will settle in the 5.5% to 6.0% range. Getting below 5.0% would likely require a significant recession or a return to near-zero federal funds rates, which is not the baseline forecast for the 2026-2027 period.