Will NATO's total collective defense spending (as % of collective GDP) exceed 3.0% in any single year (2027–2030)?

The 3% Commitment

NATO members are currently committed to spending 2% of GDP on defense (simulated late 2025 context). However, following the war in Ukraine and heightened geopolitical tensions, major financial institutions (e.g., Oxford Economics) forecast that collective NATO defense spending will be lifted to a new benchmark, potentially 3.0% or 3.5% by 2030. The strong 'Yes' vote reflects the geopolitical reality: a severe and ongoing threat from Russia, coupled with a fundamental re-assessment of defense needs by major European economies (Germany, Poland, UK), makes it almost certain that the collective defense spending will surpass the 3.0% threshold in at least one year before 2030.