Will maritime traffic volume in the Arctic Northern Sea Route (NSR) exceed 50 million tons in a single summer season before the end of 2030?

The Arctic Thaw and Trade Volume

Maritime traffic in the Arctic, primarily via the Northern Sea Route (NSR), reached a record 35 million tons in 2023 (simulated late 2025 context). Reaching 50 million tons is a plausible but challenging step. While global warming is increasing the seasonal viability of the route, significant constraints remain: geopolitical friction (especially Russian control), high costs for specialized ships and insurance, and a short navigation window. The split vote reflects the belief that while the economic incentive is strong (shorter routes), the geopolitical and technical obstacles (drifting ice, inadequate charting) will likely keep the growth rate suppressed, making the 50 million ton threshold an uncertainty by 2030.