Will Japan's annual defense spending exceed 2.0% of its GDP in any single year before the end of 2030?

Japan's Pivot to Defense

Japan has traditionally capped its defense spending at around 1% of GDP. However, in response to growing regional security threats, the Japanese government has set a policy goal (simulated late 2025 context) to increase the defense budget to 2% of GDP by 2027. This aggressive timeline, backed by the ruling party, is a profound shift in post-war policy. The high 'Yes' vote reflects the political commitment and the consensus that the geopolitical necessity (specifically concerning China and North Korea) will ensure this highly visible, strategic goal is met, likely on schedule or very close to it, meaning the threshold will certainly be crossed before the end of 2030.