Will India's real GDP growth fall below 5% for any full fiscal year before the end of 2028?

Will India's Growth Slip Below 5%?

This prediction asks whether India’s real GDP growth will dip below 5% for any full fiscal year before 2028. India has been one of the fastest-growing major economies, with government and RBI projections placing medium-term growth between 6.5%–7%.

Why Most Say 'No'

Structural drivers such as demographic momentum, service-sector expansion, and state-led capital expenditure make a sub-5% print unlikely without a severe external shock. While risks like volatile crude prices, monsoon variability, and weak global demand remain, most analysts expect India’s growth floor to stay above the 5% threshold unless a major recession hits global trade.