Will global average wheat prices (FAO index) exceed their 2022 peak for at least two consecutive months before 2029 due to climate-driven agricultural disruption?

A New Global Food Crisis?

Extreme weather events—including heatwaves, flood cycles, and prolonged droughts—are reshaping global crop yields. The 2022 price peak was caused by war disruptions; a future peak may come from climate instability.

Key Drivers of Risk

• Drought in U.S. Midwest and Canadian prairies
• Heatwaves in India reducing exports
• El Niño cycles amplifying global volatility
• Supply chain fragility in grain shipping routes

The risk of price spikes is high, and food stability remains one of the most vulnerable sectors to climate disruption.