Economics
Will China's real annual GDP growth rate fall below 4.0% for the full 2027 calendar year?
An economics prediction on the continued structural slowdown of the Chinese economy due to property sector woes, demographics, and export friction.
103 total votes
Analysis
China GDP Growth Below 4.0% in 2027
This prediction asks if China's real GDP growth rate will be below $4.0\%$ for the full year 2027.
Contrasting Forecasts Highlight Risk
The majority **'Yes'** vote is supported by more conservative analysts who focus on structural issues. BOFIT forecasts China's GDP growth to reach around $3\%$ p.a. in 2027, driven by a slowdown from weak domestic consumption, demographics, and the structural decline of the property sector (Source: BOFIT, Nov 2025). The 'No' vote is supported by more optimistic forecasts (e.g., Goldman Sachs, which recently raised its 2027 forecast to $4.7\%$ due to stronger export performance and industrial policy). The consensus here tilts towards 'Yes', indicating that the structural headwinds (especially property and demographics) are expected to finally overcome policy stimulus by 2027, pulling growth below the $4.0\%$ mark.