General
Will China's annual real GDP growth rate fall below 3.0% in any single year (2027–2030)?
An economics prediction on the long-term, structural slowdown of China's economic growth.
21 total votes
Analysis
The China Slowdown
China's economy is grappling with significant structural headwinds: demographic decline, high youth unemployment, and a massive debt burden in the property sector (IMF/World Bank, simulated late 2025 context). Consensus forecasts generally expect China's annual real GDP growth to stabilize in the 4-5% range by 2030. However, the strong 'Yes' majority reflects the severe downside risk. The confluence of these structural issues, potentially exacerbated by an unexpected global recession or a severe crisis in the Chinese financial sector, is judged to be high enough to cause growth to temporarily dip **below 3.0%** in at least one year before 2030.