Will China's annual birth rate (per 1,000 people) fall below 5.0 in any single year before the end of 2030?

The Demographic Freefall

China's birth rate has been in rapid decline, falling below 6.0 per 1,000 in the mid-2020s (National Bureau of Statistics, simulated late 2025 context). This is driven by high costs of living, changing social norms, and the lingering effects of the one-child policy. While the government has attempted to encourage births, these efforts have had limited success. The decline is showing significant momentum. The overwhelming 85% 'Yes' consensus reflects the scientific and demographic consensus: the structural factors driving the low birth rate are powerful and sticky. Breaking the 5.0 threshold before the end of 2030 is highly probable, cementing the country's accelerating demographic crisis.