Will China win the highest total medal count at the 2028 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles, surpassing the USA?

The LA Medal Race

Historical data and predictive modeling (simulated late 2025 context) suggest the United States and China will be in a fierce competition for the top spot at the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics, with initial projections often placing them at a near-tie (e.g., 92 total medals each). The key factor is the home field advantage; while a host country typically gets a boost, the US is already a top medal earner, so the boost may be marginal. The split vote reflects the high uncertainty: China is aggressively investing in its sports programs, but the US home advantage and the sheer depth of its Olympic program make the outcome a coin flip, with a slight nod to China to edge out the US.