General

Will any major airline operate a hydrogen-powered commercial passenger flight on a regularly scheduled route before the end of 2030?

A climate/technology prediction on the future of zero-emission aviation.

Yes 48%Maybe 6%No 47%

90 total votes

Analysis

Hydrogen Aircraft: From Prototype to Real Routes

The aviation sector accounts for 2.5% of global emissions and is one of the hardest industries to decarbonize. Hydrogen propulsion—whether fuel-cell electric or direct combustion—offers a potential path to zero-emission commercial flights.

Why It Might Happen

  • Airbus ZeroE program targeting mid-2030s prototypes
  • ZeroAvia and Universal Hydrogen already flying test aircraft
  • Government pressure in the EU and UK for green aviation corridors

Why It Might Not

  • Hydrogen airport infrastructure is extremely underdeveloped
  • Certification for passenger safety may take years
  • Airlines struggle to justify the operational cost

This prediction reflects the tension between ambitious climate goals and slow-moving aviation engineering cycles.

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