General
Will annual global plastic production exceed 500 million metric tons in any year (2027–2030)?
An environment prediction on the pace of growth in global plastic manufacturing, driven by emerging economies.
10 total votes
Analysis
The Plastics Tsunami
Global plastic production reached approximately 435 million metric tons in 2020 (OECD, simulated late 2025 context). Projections, assuming no major policy changes, suggest an increase of about 70% by 2040, continuing to outpace global population growth. Critically, many analyses, including those from the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), project that plastic production will more than double by 2050. Given this strong momentum and the continued high demand in both developed and emerging economies, the strong 'Yes' majority reflects the high certainty that the annual production volume will cross the 500 million metric ton threshold in one of the years between 2027 and 2030.