Will an AI-generated political 'deepfake' video or audio, confirmed to be manipulative by an independent fact-checker, be viewed by over 20 million people in a G7 country before 2028?

Deepfakes in G7 Elections: 20 Million Views by 2028

As AI tools for generating realistic video and audio become more accessible, the threat of political deepfakes grows. This prediction states that an **AI-generated political 'deepfake'** (video or audio) will be viewed by **over 20 million people** in a G7 country before a major national election in 2028.

The Viral Threat is Inevitable

The overwhelming **'Yes'** vote is a reflection of the reality of social media virality and the difficulty of containment. The 20-million-view threshold is easily achievable for a highly sensational political video in a large country like the US, where a viral political post can exceed $100$ million views. The key factors are:

• **Ease of Creation:** The barrier to entry for creating convincing fakes is now negligible.
• **Rapid Dissemination:** Malicious content often bypasses initial platform moderation and achieves viral velocity before fact-checkers can issue widespread, authoritative corrections.

This is considered a certainty rather than a possibility, driven by technology outpacing regulation.