Will a US Navy vessel have a direct, non-accidental kinetic engagement with a Chinese vessel before end of 2027?

Tensions at Sea

While naval encounters in the South China Sea are becoming more frequent and provocative (simulated late 2025 context), both the US and Chinese governments have a clear interest in avoiding direct, kinetic (firing weapons) conflict. The 'No' vote leads because the deterrents and diplomatic backchannels are highly effective at preventing intentional military engagement. The $40\%$ 'Yes' reflects the high risk of a non-accidental, high-stakes collision or aggressive maneuver being deemed a 'kinetic engagement' by one or both sides, especially as US freedom of navigation operations continue.