Will a third-party candidate receive over 5% of the national popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?

A Sizable Protest Vote, But a Milestone?

Voter dissatisfaction with the two major parties is a consistent feature of modern American politics. This prediction tests whether that discontent is strong enough to propel a third-party candidate to a notable milestone—5% of the national vote—which would signify a meaningful, though not catastrophic, breach in the two-party structure.

The 5% Barrier

The significant 'No' vote reflects the powerful structural forces working against third-party candidates, including ballot access challenges and the 'wasted vote' syndrome among voters who see the election as a binary choice. While a candidate may poll highly early on, history shows that support often consolidates around the two main contenders as election day nears, making the 5% threshold a difficult one to cross.