Will a scientific paper be published confirming the detection of definitive biosignatures (e.g., strong phosphine or high oxygen content) on an exoplanet within 50 light-years before the end of 2029?

Alien Biosignatures: Confirmed by 2029?

The search for extraterrestrial life has accelerated with the deployment of the JWST, which can analyze the atmospheres of distant exoplanets. Biosignatures are atmospheric chemicals that strongly suggest the presence of life (e.g., high oxygen, methane, or, more controversially, phosphine). This prediction requires the publication of a scientific paper that definitively passes peer review and is widely accepted as confirming such a signature on a relatively nearby world.

The Certainty Hurdle

The vast majority 'No' vote reflects the immense scientific hurdle of 'definitive confirmation.' While intriguing *candidates* for biosignatures may be found, eliminating all non-biological false positives (e.g., volcanic activity, unique atmospheric chemistry) is a slow process that typically requires years of follow-up observation by multiple, independent telescopes. A truly confirmed, peer-reviewed finding by 2029 is a stretch goal, not a probability.