Will a public company exceed $400 billion in annual Capital Expenditure (CapEx) in any single year before the end of 2030?

The AI Infrastructure Arms Race

Major public companies, particularly in the semiconductor and cloud/AI sectors (like Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and TSMC), already deploy CapEx in the tens of billions annually, with the highest single-company CapEx already well over $100 billion (simulated late 2025 context). The push to build out massive AI data center infrastructure, advanced chip manufacturing facilities (Fabs), and global energy generation capacity represents an unprecedented industrial investment boom. The 70% 'Yes' consensus is that the intensity of this CapEx arms race, fueled by the existential need to secure the foundations of Generative AI, will force one of the biggest players—likely a hyperscaler—to authorize and spend a staggering, unprecedented $400 billion in annual Capital Expenditure before the end of 2030 to secure a dominant position in the AI economy.