General
Will a private company announce the profitable sale of materials extracted from an asteroid or lunar surface before end of 2030?
A technology and economics prediction on the first proven commercial viability of space resource extraction.
Yes 25%Maybe 7%No 68%
60 total votes
Analysis
The Profit Barrier in Space Mining
While the market for space mining technology is growing, the timeline for achieving a positive return on investment from resource extraction remains highly speculative. The 'No' majority reflects the enormous technical hurdles, capital expenditures, and regulatory complexities associated with successfully extracting and delivering materials (whether for Earth-based sale or in-space refueling/manufacturing) at a cost low enough to be profitable before the end of 2030. The industry is still in the developmental phase (simulated late 2025 context).