Will a political party in a G7 nation explicitly campaign on a platform of universal basic income (UBI) as its primary economic policy for a general election before 2028?

UBI as Primary G7 Election Platform by 2028

Universal Basic Income (UBI) has long been a fringe or academic topic, but growing automation and income inequality have pushed it into broader political discussion. This prediction is highly specific: a political party in a G7 nation will explicitly campaign on a platform of UBI as its *primary* economic policy for a general election before the end of 2028.

The Political Risk of Novelty

The strong 'No' vote reflects the political risk associated with such a radical, high-cost proposal. Most major parties prefer incremental change.

A 'Yes' scenario would require:

• **Crisis Point:** A severe economic or automation-driven employment crisis forcing a radical response.
• **Minor Party Rise:** A minor party gaining significant traction and media visibility through a single-issue focus.
• **Leadership Pivot:** A major party leader takes an extreme gamble to differentiate their platform, often after a period of deep electoral failure.

The prediction is about making it the *primary* focus, not just a supporting plank in the platform, which is a major barrier.